Long-Term Investing: Why Patience Matters More Than Luck

If you’re crossing your fingers and hoping stock prices will soar, or cursing that the market fell, remember, investing isn’t about being ‘lucky’. Instead, successfully growing your wealth over time is about something more structured and disciplined. This requires patience. 

Calamity James is “the world’s unluckiest boy”. He’s been suffering comical mishaps in the pages of The Beano for the last 40 years. If he didn’t have bad luck, he wouldn’t have any luck at all. 

But let’s imagine for a minute that James is all grown up with some money to invest. Here’s something that might cheer him up: good investing really isn’t about luck at all.  

True, if you buy a stock and it goes up in price immediately, that might feel like great timing. And, conversely, if the market tanks straight after you’re bought into it, it can be very unnerving. Especially in times like these, where uncertainty is everywhere. But at times like these it’s also worth reminding ourselves of the old market maxim: “It’s time in the market, not timing the market.” 

In other words: for long-term goals, being ‘lucky’ is never the most important thing. Staying invested is. 

What Happens If You Invest at the Wrong Time? An Example

Vanguard did some analysis on the question of luck in the market earlier this year. 

A hypothetical ‘unlucky’ investor pays in lump sums to a portfolio based on the FTSE All World before every major market downturn of the last 30 years. Each time they invested, the market went pear-shaped: including the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis in 2009 and just before the short market crash during the 2020 pandemic, and many more. 

Each time their portfolio took a hit. But as the table below shows, by the end of the period (February 2026), their total contributions of £45,000 had grown to £197,963. By comparison, if they’d held the same money in a cash savings account, this would have only grown to £63,980.  

By staying invested in the market, they’ve earned an additional £134,000.1 

Why Staying Invested Beats Trying to Time the Market

So, if being lucky isn’t so important for your long-term investments, what is? Being patient. 

An impatient investor can’t look past the rough patches. When markets fall sharply, the instinct to sell can feel overwhelming – it’s the fight-or-flight response kicking in. But acting on that impulse often means locking in losses at the worst possible moment.  

The lesson from previous downturns is that not instinctively selling your stock holdings is more likely to be rewarded. This analysis from Morningstar shows that one dollar invested in the US stock market in 1870 would be worth US$35,518 by 2026. In that time, there were 19 market declines that varied wildly in length and severity.  

It’s not easy to predict when a period of decline will end – in some cases it’s several years – but in each case the market has always recovered before going on to new highs. 

How a Financial Planner Helps You Stay Invested for the Long Term

Stock markets are an uncertain place at the moment. Conflict in the Middle East has led to fears we could be heading back to something like the 1970s energy crisis in the, when oil prices quadrupled.  

Markets and global economies were choppy then and we won’t pretend it’s not unsettling now. But it’s a lot easier to find the patience for disciplined investing if you’re not doing this on your own.  

That’s where a financial planner comes in. 

A planner helps you take a step back from what’s happening day-to-day and keeps you focused on the long term. We give you clear sight of your investment goals – i.e. what you actually want to achieve with your money, not just the final sum you hope to save. Cashflow modelling helps you visualise what different scenarios will look like – good and bad – and what sort of action you need to take.  

And, with regular reviews, we help you adapt as things change. 

Because things can and will change and sometimes dramatically. However, they can also change back for the better. And a patient investor who stays in the market will benefit when they do. 

If you’d like to discuss your investments or any of the topics covered in this blog, get in touch with our team today to see how we can help.